Weather as a Force Multiplier:
Owning the Weather in 2025
A Research Paper
Presented To
Air Force 2025
by
Col Tamzy J. House
Lt Col James B. Near, Jr.
LTC William B. Shields (USA)
Maj Ronald J. Celentano
Maj David M. Husband
Maj Ann E. Mercer
Maj James E. Pugh
August 1996
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Disclaimer
2025 is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air Force to examine the
concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require to remain the dominant air and space force
in the future. Presented on 17 June 1996, this report was produced in the Department of Defense school
environment of academic freedom and in the interest of advancing concepts related to national defense. The
views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the
United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States government.
This report contains fictional representations of future situations/scenarios. Any similarities to real people or
events, other than those specifically cited, are unintentional and are for purposes of illustration only.
This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities, is unclassified, and is cleared for
public release.
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Contents
Chapter
- Precipitation
- Fog
- Storms
- Exploitation of “NearSpace” for Space Control
- Opportunities Afforded by Space Weather-modification
- Communications Dominance via Ionospheric Modification
- Artificial Weather
- Concept of Operations Summary
5. Investigation Recommendations
Appendix
A Why Is the Ionosphere Important?
B Research to Better Understand and Predict Ionospheric Effects
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Illustrations
Figure
3–2. The Military System for Weather-Modification Operations
4–1. Crossed-Beam Approach for Generating an Artificial Ionospheric Mirror
4–2. Artificial Ionospheric Mirrors Point-to-Point Communications
4–3. Artificial Ionospheric Mirror Over-the-Horizon Surveillance Concept
4–4. Scenarios for Telecommunications Degradation
5–1. A Core Competency Road Map to Weather Modification in 2025
5–2. A Systems Development Road Map to Weather Modification in 2025
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Tables
Table 1 — Operational Capabilities Matrix
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Acknowledgments
We express our appreciation to Mr Mike McKim of Air War College who provided a wealth of technical
expertise and innovative ideas that significantly contributed to our paper. We are also especially grateful for the
devoted support of our families during this research project. Their understanding and patience during the
demanding research period were crucial to the project’s success.
Executive Summary
In 2025, US aerospace forces can “own the weather” by capitalizing on emerging technologies and focusing
development of those technologies to war-fighting applications. Such a capability offers the war fighter tools to
shape the battlespace in ways never before possible. It provides opportunities to impact operations across the full
spectrum of conflict and is pertinent to all possible futures. The purpose of this paper is to outline a strategy for
the use of a future weather-modification system to achieve military objectives rather than to provide a detailed
technical road map.
A high-risk, high-reward endeavor, weather-modification offers a dilemma not unlike the splitting of the atom.
While some segments of society will always be reluctant to examine controversial issues such as weathermodification,
the tremendous military capabilities that could result from this field are ignored at our own peril.
From enhancing friendly operations or disrupting those of the enemy via small-scale tailoring of natural weather
patterns to complete dominance of global communications and counterspace control, weather-modification offers
the war fighter a wide-range of possible options to defeat or coerce an adversary. Some of the potential
capabilities a weather-modification system could provide to a war-fighting commander in chief (CINC) are listed
in table 1.
Technology advancements in five major areas are necessary for an integrated weather-modification capability:
(1) advanced nonlinear modeling techniques, (2) computational capability, (3) information gathering and
transmission, (4) a global sensor array, and (5) weather intervention techniques. Some intervention tools exist
today and others may be developed and refined in the future.
Table 1 — Operational Capabilities Matrix
DEGRADE ENEMY FORCES | ENHANCE FRIENDLY FORCES |
Precipitation Enhancement | Precipitation Avoidance |
– Flood Lines of Communication | – Maintain/Improve LOC |
– Reduce PGM/Recce Effectiveness | – Maintain Visibility |
– Decrease Comfort Level/Morale | – Maintain Comfort Level/Morale |
Storm Enhancement | Storm Modification |
– Deny Operations | – Choose Battlespace Environment |
Precipitation Denial | Space Weather |
– Deny Fresh Water | – Improve Communication Reliability |
– Induce Drought | – Intercept Enemy Transmissions |
Space Weather | – Revitalize Space Assets |
– Disrupt Communications/Radar | Fog and Cloud Generation |
– Disable/Destroy Space Assets | – Increase Concealment |
Fog and Cloud Removal | Fog and Cloud Removal |
– Deny Concealment | – Maintain Airfield Operations |
– Increase Vulnerability to PGM/Recce | – Enhance PGM Effectiveness |
Detect Hostile Weather Activities | Defend against Enemy Capabilities |
Current technologies that will mature over the next 30 years will offer anyone who has the necessary resources
the ability to modify weather patterns and their corresponding effects, at least on the local scale. Current
demographic, economic, and environmental trends will create global stresses that provide the impetus necessary
for many countries or groups to turn this weather-modification ability into a capability.
In the United States, weather-modification will likely become a part of national security policy with both
domestic and international applications. Our government will pursue such a policy, depending on its interests, at
various levels. These levels could include unilateral actions, participation in a security framework such as
NATO, membership in an international organization such as the UN, or participation in a coalition. Assuming
that in 2025 our national security strategy includes weather-modification, its use in our national military strategy
will naturally follow. Besides the significant benefits an operational capability would provide, another motivation
to pursue weather-modification is to deter and counter potential adversaries.
In this paper we show that appropriate application of weather-modification can provide battlespace dominance to
a degree never before imagined. In the future, such operations will enhance air and space superiority and provide
new options for battlespace shaping and battlespace awareness.1 “The technology is there, waiting for us to pull
it all together;“2 in 2025 we can “Own the Weather.”
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Chapter 1
Introduction
Scenario: Imagine that in 2025 the US is fighting a rich, but now consolidated, politically powerful drug cartel
in South America. The cartel has purchased hundreds of Russian-and Chinese-built fighters that have
successfully thwarted our attempts to attack their production facilities. With their local numerical superiority and
interior lines, the cartel is launching more than 10 aircraft for every one of ours. In addition, the cartel is using
the French system probatoire d’ observation de la terre (SPOT) positioning and tracking imagery systems, which
in 2025 are capable of transmitting near-real-time, multispectral imagery with 1 meter resolution. The US wishes
to engage the enemy on an uneven playing field in order to exploit the full potential of our aircraft and
munitions.
Meteorological analysis reveals that equatorial South America typically has afternoon thunderstorms on a daily
basis throughout the year. Our intelligence has confirmed that cartel pilots are reluctant to fly in or near
thunderstorms. Therefore, our weather force support element (WFSE), which is a part of the commander in
chief’s (CINC) air operations center (AOC), is tasked to forecast storm paths and trigger or intensify
thunderstorm cells over critical target areas that the enemy must defend with their aircraft. Since our aircraft in
2025 have all-weather capability, the thunderstorm threat is minimal to our forces, and we can effectively and
decisively control the sky over the target.
The WFSE has the necessary sensor and communication capabilities to observe, detect, and act on weathermodification
requirements to support US military objectives. These capabilities are part of an advanced battle
area system that supports the war-fighting CINC. In our scenario, the CINC tasks the WFSE to conduct storm
intensification and concealment operations. The WFSE models the atmospheric conditions to forecast, with 90
percent confidence, the likelihood of successful modification using airborne cloud generation and seeding.
In 2025, uninhabited aerospace vehicles (UAV) are routinely used for weather-modification operations. By
cross-referencing desired attack times with wind and thunderstorm forecasts and the SPOT satellite’s projected
orbit, the WFSE generates mission profiles for each UAV. The WFSE guides each UAV using near-real-time
information from a networked sensor array.
Prior to the attack, which is coordinated with forecasted weather conditions, the UAVs begin cloud generation
and seeding operations. UAVs disperse a cirrus shield to deny enemy visual and infrared (IR) surveillance.
Simultaneously, microwave heaters create localized scintillation to disrupt active sensing via synthetic aperture
radar (SAR) systems such as the commercially available Canadian search and rescue satellite-aided tracking
(SARSAT) that will be widely available in 2025. Other cloud seeding operations cause a developing
thunderstorm to intensify over the target, severely limiting the enemy’s capability to defend. The WFSE
monitors the entire operation in real-time and notes the successful completion of another very important but
routine weather-modification mission.
This scenario may seem far-fetched, but by 2025 it is within the realm of possibility. The next chapter explores
the reasons for weather-modification, defines the scope, and examines trends that will make it possible in the
next 30 years.
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