Update: AP’s Seth Borenstein at it again hyping Antarctic melt fears

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Marc MoranoRecy­cles same claims from 2014, 1990, 1979, 1922 & 1901! – Cli­mate Depot’s Point-By-Point Rebut­tal

The Asso­ci­at­ed Press is recy­cling more than cen­tu­ry old Antarc­ti­ca ice sheet melt and sea lev­el rise fears.  Reporter Seth Boren­stein is not the first one to hype these same Antarc­ti­ca melt fears. Vir­tu­al­ly the exact same claims and hype were report­ed in 2014, 1990, 1979, 1922 and 1901!

2014: Watch: WUSA 9 DC TV sta­tion on Antarc­tic melt fears fea­tures images of DC mon­u­ments under­wa­ter. ‘It’s our choice how fast the seas rise’ – We con­trol sea lev­el rise? Watch Now: Local DC News Schlock Report on Antarc­ti­ca & Sea Lev­el Rise

1990Flash­back Jan­u­ary 11, 1990: NBC’s Today Show fea­tures Paul Ehrlich warn­ing of impacts of Antarc­tic ice melt: ‘You Could Tie Your Boat to the Wash­ing­ton Mon­u­ment’

1979 NYT: “Boats could be launched from the bot­tom of the steps of the Capi­tol’ in DC –‘Experts Tell How Antarctic’s Ice Could Cause Wide­spread Floods — Mushy Ice Beneath Sheet’]

1922: ‘Moun­tain after moun­tain of [Antarc­tic] ice will fall into the sea, be swept north­wards by the cur­rents, and melt, thus bring­ing about, but at a much more rapid rate, the threat­ened inun­da­tion of the land by the ris­ing of the sea to its ancient lev­el.’ - The Mail Ade­laide, SA — April 29, 1922

1901: ‘Lon­don On The Bor­der of Destruc­tion’: ‘To Be Wiped Out By A Huge Wave’ — Quean­beyan Age – August 10, 1901 — Excerpt: ‘Geol­o­gists believe that this great ice suck­er has reached the stage of per­fec­tion when it (Antarc­ti­ca) will, break up again, let­ting loose all the waters of its auc­tion over the two hemi­spheres, and com­plete­ly flood­ing the low-lying lands of Europe, Asia, and North Amer­i­ca.’

The Asso­ci­at­ed Press and Seth Boren­stein are at it again. The arti­cle by Seth Boren­stein and Luis Andres Henao titled ‘Glacial Melt­ing In Antarc­ti­ca Makes Con­ti­nent The ‘Ground Zero Of Glob­al Cli­mate Change’‘ was pub­lished on Feb­ru­ary 27, 2014.

The AP left out con­trary peer-reviewed stud­ies, incon­ve­nient data and trends that counter the arti­cles ‘worse than we thought’ nar­ra­tive. The AP paints an erro­neous pic­ture of poten­tial sea lev­el rise, omits poten­tial vol­canic caus­es of any melt­ing and the cur­rent state of Antarc­ti­ca and the geo­log­ic his­to­ry of the con­ti­nent.

Why did the AP not include any ice spe­cial­ists with dif­fer­ing views? See: Promi­nent Sci­en­tist Dis­sents: Renowned glaciol­o­gist declares glob­al warm­ing is ‘going to be a big plus’ – Fears ‘Fright­en­ing’ Cool­ing – Warns sci­en­tists are ‘pros­ti­tut­ing their sci­ence’ – Dr. Hugh­es is an inter­na­tion­al­ly renowned glaciol­o­gist who pio­neered many of the mod­ern ideas cur­rent­ly under study in the field.’ Dr. Hugh­es has trav­elled to the Arc­tic ten times and the Antarc­tic thir­teen times since 1968, most­ly as the prin­ci­pal inves­ti­ga­tor of NSF-fund­ed glacio­log­i­cal research.

Of course this was no sur­pris­ing giv­en the arti­cle was co-writ­ten by Seth Boren­stein who’s recent report­ing on ‘hottest year’ claims had to be cor­rect­ed. See: AP ‘clar­i­fies’ ‘hottest year’ claims: ‘Kudos to Marc Mora­no for keep­ing the heat (heh) on about this’

Boren­stein has a long his­to­ry of pro­mot­ing glob­al warm­ing fears at the expense of jour­nal­is­tic ethics. See: ‘Long sad his­to­ry of AP reporter Seth Borenstein’s woe­ful glob­al warm­ing report­ing’ More on Boren­stein here.

Cli­mate Depot Analy­sis:

First off, no men­tion of all=time record sea ice (not land based ice sheets) expan­sion in Antarc­ti­ca. See: Feds: ‘Jan­u­ary had largest Antarc­tic sea ice extent on record’ – NCDC: ‘Antarc­tic sea ice dur­ing Jan­u­ary was 890,000 square miles (44.6 per­cent) above the 1981–2010 aver­age. This was the largest Jan­u­ary Antarc­tic sea ice extent on record, sur­pass­ing the pre­vi­ous record set in 2008 by 220,000 square miles.’ & Nation­al Snow & Ice Data Cen­ter (NSIDC): Past 3 years in a row set ice record! ‘Sea ice in Antarc­ti­ca has remained at satel­lite-era record high dai­ly lev­els for most of 2014′

And yes, AP’s Seth Boren­stein has pre­vi­ous­ly tried to claim that more Antarc­tic sea ice is caused by glob­al warm­ing. See: AP’s Seth Boren­stein at it again! Claims ‘glob­al warm­ing means more Antarc­tic ice’ — Meet the new con­sen­sus, the oppo­site of the old con­sen­sus

Of course this claim ignores con­trary data. See: Bri­an Gunter: ‘Antarc­tic Con­ti­nent Has Not Warmed In The Last 50 Years’ — ‘Zero tem­per­a­ture trend for the main regions of the Antarc­tic con­ti­nent’

And by just focus­ing on the small­er West Antarc­tic ice sheets, the AP seems to be inten­tion­al­ly mis­lead­ing read­ers by ignor­ing the con­di­tions on the vast bulk of Antarc­ti­ca. See: 2013: New paper finds the major­i­ty of East Antarc­tic glac­i­ers have advanced in size since 1990 – A new paper pub­lished in Nature.

Cli­mate Depot’s Point-By-Point Rebut­tal of lat­est Antarc­tic melt fears:

AP claim: ‘In the worst case sce­nario, Antarctica’s melt could push sea lev­els up 10 feet (3 meters) world­wide in a cen­tu­ry or two…Scientists esti­mate it will take any­where from 200 to 1,000 years to melt enough ice to raise seas by 10 feet, maybe only 100 years in a worst case sce­nario.’

Cli­mate Depot Response: This is just spec­u­la­tion, unproven pre­dic­tions amped up with extreme sce­nar­ios and not based on cur­rent cli­mate real­i­ty. Accord­ing to the AP’s arti­cle, the melt rate has slowed down. See: Sun­shine Hours blog: Antarc­ti­ca Los­ing 130 giga­tons of ice per year (last Year it was 159 giga­tons per year) 1) Last year it was 159 giga­tons per year (Almost all of it where there are vol­ca­noes under the ice)

2) NSIDC: “The Antarc­tic Ice Sheet con­tains 30 mil­lion cubic kilo­me­ters (7.2 mil­lion cubic miles) of ice.” A giga­ton of ice is approx­i­mate­ly one cubic kilo­me­ter of ice.

So … at 130 giga­tons per year, how long before Antarc­ti­ca melts? That would be 30,000,000 / 130.

The Answer: 230,000 years until Antarc­ti­ca melts.

Why did Asso­ci­at­ed Press Boren­stein fail to men­tion that?

This is not the first time the AP’s Boren­stein has done this type of mis­lead­ing report­ing. In 2008, Boren­stein was crit­i­cised by sci­en­tists for sim­i­lar jour­nal­is­tic efforts.

From 2008 report: Cli­mate sci­en­tist Ben Her­man, past direc­tor of the Insti­tute of Atmos­pher­ic Physics and for­mer Head of the Depart­ment of Atmos­pher­ic Sci­ences at the Uni­ver­si­ty of Ari­zona, stat­ed, “It is inter­est­ing that all of the AGW (anthro­pogenic glob­al warm­ing) sto­ries con­cern­ing Antarc­ti­ca are always about what’s hap­pen­ing around the [west­ern] penin­su­la, which seems to be the only place on Antarc­ti­ca that has shown warm­ing. How about the net ‘no change’ or ‘cool­ing’ over the rest of the con­ti­nent, which is prob­a­bly about 95% of the land mass, not to men­tion the record sea ice cov­er­age recent­ly.”

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AP Claim: ‘130 bil­lion tons of ice (118 bil­lion met­ric tons) per year for the past decade, accord­ing to NASA satel­lite cal­cu­la­tions. That’s the weight of more than 356,000 Empire State Build­ings, enough ice melt to fill more than 1.3 mil­lion Olympic swim­ming pools.’

Cli­mate Depot Response:  Sounds scary, right? Well, that is what the AP reporters want you to be scared. But just how alarm­ing is  that melt rate? The AP answers that ques­tion many para­graphs lat­er.

At its cur­rent rate, the rise of the world’s oceans from Antarctica’s ice melt would be bare­ly notice­able, about one-third of a mil­lime­ter a year. The oceans are that vast.”

So all of these analo­gies about Empire State Build­ings and Olympic swim­ming pools amount to ‘bare­ly notice­able.’  Of course the rate of sea lev­el rise is not notic­ing any­thing unusu­al in Antarc­ti­ca. Even the IPCC con­cedes that there was no sig­nif­i­cant anthro­pogenic influ­ence on cli­mate pri­or to 1950, thus man is not be respon­si­ble for sea lev­el rise begin­ning 150–200 years ago, at the end of the Lit­tle Ice Age.

Via The Hock­ey Schtick: The sea lev­el rise over the past ~200 years shows no evi­dence of accel­er­a­tion, which is nec­es­sary to assume a man-made influ­ence. Sea lev­el rise instead decel­er­at­ed over the 20th cen­tu­rydecel­er­at­ed 31% since 2002 and decel­er­at­ed 44% since 2004 to less than 7 inch­es per cen­tu­ry. There is no evi­dence of an accel­er­a­tion of sea lev­el rise, and there­fore no evi­dence of any man-made effect on sea lev­els. Sea lev­el rise is pri­mar­i­ly a local phe­nom­e­non relat­ed to land sub­si­dence, not CO2 lev­els. There­fore, areas with ground­wa­ter deple­tion and land sub­si­dence have much high­er rates of rel­a­tive sea lev­el rise, but this has absolute­ly noth­ing to do with man-made CO2.

Sci­en­tist coun­ters media hype on Antarc­tic ice sheet ‘col­lapse: ‘It has been in progress for sev­er­al thou­sand years, and is nei­ther new nor man-caused’

Some Per­spec­tive on the Head­lin­ing Antarc­tic Ice Loss Trends – The press cov­er­age is aimed to make this sound alarming—“This West Antarc­tic region sheds a Mount Ever­est-sized amount of ice every two years, study says” screamed the Wash­ing­ton Post. Wow! That sounds like a lot. Turns out, it isn’t. The glob­al oceans are vast. Adding a “Mount Ever­est-sized amount of ice every two years” to them results in a sea lev­el rise of 0.02 inch­es per year.

Cli­ma­tol­o­gist Dr. Pat Michaels Mocks cli­mate claims: ‘Sea lev­els have been ris­ing since before the end of the last ice age, about 11,600 years before the Indus­tri­al Rev­o­lu­tion’

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AP Claim: ‘The world’s fate hangs on the ques­tion of how fast the ice melts.’

Cli­mate Depot Response: Dra­ma queen non­sense not root­ed in sci­en­tif­ic evi­dence.

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AP claim: “I was last here 10 years ago,” Con­vey said dur­ing a rare sun­ny day on the island, with tem­per­a­tures just above freez­ing. “And if you com­pare what I saw back then to now, the basic dif­fer­ence due to warm­ing is that the per­ma­nent patch­es of snow and ice are small­er. They’re still there behind me, but they’re small­er than they were.”

Cli­mate Depot Response: This is just anec­do­tal evi­dence based on per­son­al obser­va­tion and an extreme­ly short 10 year win­dow which tell us noth­ing about cli­mate time scales of 20, 50, 100 years or longer. Mis­lead­ing Hype Over Antarc­tic Ice Loss: ‘Antarc­tic land ice has been steadi­ly dis­ap­pear­ing since the end of the Ice Age, some 18,000 years ago’ – ‘Their new sur­vey cov­ers just three years, up to 2013. The pre­vi­ous peri­od, that they com­pare against, was 2005-11. Would any seri­ous sci­en­tists use such short peri­ods to make claims about trends?’

Also, the AP arti­cle failed to men­tion that cli­mate is not a one way street. Oth­er vari­ables can con­tribute to a sea lev­el reduc­tion. See: Paper pre­dicts increased pre­cip­i­ta­tion in Antarc­ti­ca will slow sea lev­el rise by > 1 mm/yr & New paper finds East Antarc­tic ice sheet will have neg­a­tive con­tri­bu­tion to sea lev­els over next 200 years – Pub­lished The Cryos­phere

Why did the AP leave out peer-reviewed stud­ies that were incon­ve­nient to the their ‘worse than we thought’ nar­ra­tive? See:

Mankind Not Caus­ing West Antarc­tic Glac­i­ers To Col­lapse: ‘The warm­ing and cool­ing in the South Pole is well in line with his­tor­i­cal trends dat­ing back thou­sands of years’ – ‘Study from British Antarc­tic Sur­vey released last year found that the cur­rent melt in the west­ern Antarc­tic is with­in the “nat­ur­al range of cli­mate vari­abil­i­ty” of the last 300 years.’

Also, why did AP leave out stud­ies reveal­ing that cur­rent tem­per­a­tures in Antarc­ti­ca are not ‘unprece­dent­ed.’ See: Lat­est Research: Antarc­ti­ca Was Warmer Dur­ing Medieval Peri­od

New paper finds most of Antarc­ti­ca cooled over the past 1,000 years: A new paper pub­lished in Nature Cli­mate Change recon­structs tem­per­a­tures in Antarc­ti­ca and South Amer­i­ca over the past 1000 years and shows that most of Antarc­ti­ca has cooled over the past 1000 years.

And even fur­ther back: Antarc­tic palm trees: 52M years ago: ‘New paper in Nature: ‘Per­sis­tent near-trop­i­cal warmth on the Antarc­tic con­ti­nent dur­ing the ear­ly Eocene epoch’ – Analy­sis: ‘The find­ing, if true, proves that all exist­ing cli­mate mod­els are com­plete rub­bish because they obvi­ous­ly don’t allow the con­ti­nen­tal tem­per­a­tures to nat­u­ral­ly change by this much’

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AP Claim: ‘Now sci­en­tists in two dif­fer­ent stud­ies use the words “irre­versible” and “unstop­pable” to talk about the melt­ing in West Antarc­ti­ca.’

Cli­mate Depot Response: AP says ‘now’ those apoc­a­lyp­tic terms are being used as if Antarc­ti­ca ice sheet melt fears were new or some­thing. Far from it.  Boren­stein is not the first one to hype these same Antarc­ti­ca melt fears. Vir­tu­al­ly the exact same claims and hype have were recy­cled in 2014, 1990, 1979, 1922 and 1901. Yes, the same recy­cled Antarc­tic ice melt and cat­a­stroph­ic sea lev­el rise scares have been around since 1901!

2014: Let’s start with 2014: Flash­back 2014: Watch: WUSA 9 DC TV sta­tion on Antarc­tic melt fears fea­tures images of DC mon­u­ments under­wa­ter‘It’s our choice how fast the seas rise’ – We con­trol sea lev­el rise? Watch Now: Local DC News Schlock Report on Antarc­ti­ca & Sea Lev­el Rise‘It’s our choice how fast the seas rise and that gives us time to pre­pare and pro­tect our com­mu­ni­ties in a smart way.’ – Bren­da Ekwurzel – Union of Con­cerned Sci­en­tists

The same claims about Antarc­tic ice melt and DC land­marks were made in 1990.

1990Flash­back Jan­u­ary 11, 1990: NBC’s Today Show fea­tures Paul Ehrlich warn­ing of impacts of Antarc­tic ice melt: ‘You Could Tie Your Boat to the Wash­ing­ton Mon­u­ment’ – Paul Ehrlich: ‘As glob­al tem­per­a­tures rise, they may cause the mas­sive West Antarc­tic ice sheet to slip more rapid­ly. Then we’ll be fac­ing a sea-lev­el rise not of one to three feet in a cen­tu­ry, but of 10 or 20 feet in a much short­er time. The Supreme Court would be flood­ed. You could tie your boat to the Wash­ing­ton Mon­u­ment. Storm surges would make the Capi­tol unus­able. For Today, Paul Ehrlich in Wash­ing­ton, DC, on the future shore­line of Chesa­peake Bay.”

And the same Antarc­tic melt and sea lev­el rise fears in 1979.

1979 NYT: “Boats could be launched from the bot­tom of the steps of the Capi­tol’ in DC –‘Experts Tell How Antarctic’s Ice Could Cause Wide­spread Floods – Mushy Ice Beneath Sheet’ – Jan. 8, 1979]screenhunter_164-may-26-20-50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1922: And the same sto­ry was told in 1922 warn­ing of ‘Bib­li­cal del­uge’ and a ‘World­wide flood’ due to a poten­tial­ly melt­ing Antarc­ti­ca.  1922: ‘Today’s scare of the day is that Antarc­ti­ca is going to col­lapse and drown us all – in about 1,000 years. Sci­en­tists told exact­ly the same sto­ry in 1922′ – The Mail Ade­laide, SA – April 29, 1922 – 1922 Arti­cle Excerpt: ‘We are now, it is believed, slow­ly approach­ing anoth­er warm epoch, when, if it becomes uni­ver­sal, affect­ing both hemi­spheres togeth­er, the ice will again melt, and the sea rise to its ancient lev­el, sub­merg­ing an enor­mous por­tion of what is now dry and thick­ly pop­u­lat­ed land. Accord­ing to anoth­er view the melt­ing of the ice and rise of the sea may occur com­par­a­tive­ly sud­den­ly instead of being a very grad­ual process, spread over many centuries…With [Antarc­tic] ice ever form­ing above and a sea grad­u­al­ly grow­ing warmer below, the process must even­tu­al­ly over bal­ance, the under­mined glac­i­ers dis­in­te­grate, and the ice-cap break up. Moun­tain after moun­tain of ice will fall into the sea, be swept north­wards by the cur­rents, and melt, thus bring­ing about, but at a much more rapid rate, the threat­ened inun­da­tion of the land by the ris­ing of the sea to its ancient lev­el.screenhunter_388-may-12-17-28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1901: And the same sto­ry on Antarc­tic melt fears was being hyped in 1901. ‘Lon­don On The Bor­der of Destruc­tion’: ‘To Be Wiped Out By A Huge Wave’ – Quean­beyan Age – August 10, 1901 - Excerpt: ‘Accord­ing to a recent the­o­ry of some geol­o­gists Lon­don is on the bor­der edge of destruc­tion, the destroy­ing angel being the great Antarc­tic ice­cap which has been form­ing itself for cen­turies, and which holds at present in its grip all the waters drawn from off the North­ern Hemi­sphere. Geol­o­gists believe that this great ice suck­er has reached the stage of per­fec­tion when it will, break up again, let­ting loose all the waters of its auc­tion over the two hemi­spheres, and com­plete­ly flood­ing the low-lying lands of Europe, Asia, and North Amer­i­ca. This being the case, Lon­don will be swept out of sight in less time than can be cal­cu­lat­ed by this great wall of water a mile high, and huge blocks of ice be hurled here, there, and every­where.’B--Mg2JWoAAuW9F

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Also, there is noth­ing new sci­en­tif­i­cal­ly: See: West Antarc­tic Ice Loss Has Been Occur­ring For Cen­turies

And the pre­vi­ous claims of accel­er­at­ing melt­ing have been called into ques­tion: Cli­mate alarmists make major blun­der in report­ing Antarc­ti­ca ice loss results: ‘Total ice loss from lat­est study is ‘con­sis­tent’ with, not ‘dou­ble’ pri­or study mea­sure­ments’

Even the New York Times cringes at use these types of alarmist terms about Antarc­ti­ca. See: NYT’s Revkin on Antarc­tic sea lev­el scare study: ‘Awful mis­use of “Col­lapse” in head­lines on cen­turies-long ice loss in W. Antarc­ti­ca. See rates in papers. Same as ’09′

Irre­versible Col­lapse Of Cli­mate Alarmism’ – Antarc­ti­ca & Sea Lev­el claims – ‘Yet anoth­er non-cri­sis cri­sis’ – ‘Truth sac­ri­ficed in the name of sen­sa­tion­al­ism’

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AP claim: ‘What’s hap­pen­ing is sim­ple physics. Warm water eats away at the ice from under­neath. Then more ice is exposed to the water, and it too melts. Final­ly, the ice above the water col­laps­es into the water and melts.’

Cli­mate Depot Response: ‘Sim­ple physics’? Is the AP seri­ous? What about sim­ple data that coun­ters  their ‘sim­ple’ pro­pa­gan­da? See: No Warm­ing In Antarc­ti­ca Dur­ing Satel­lite Record – Since 1979 – ‘Accord­ing to GHG the­o­ry, it is the poles which should be warm­ing fastest. Appar­ent­ly, nobody told the South Pole.’

MIT Sci­en­tists Con­firm Antarc­ti­ca Is Cool­ing – ‘Antarc­ti­ca has cooled and has gained some ice recent­ly’ – Abstract excerpt: ‘The east­ern Antarc­tic and Antarc­tic plateau have cooled, pri­mar­i­ly in sum­mer, with warm­ing over the Antarc­tic Penin­su­la and Patag­o­nia . – Abstract excerpt: ‘The east­ern Antarc­tic and Antarc­tic plateau have cooled, pri­mar­i­ly in sum­mer, with warm­ing over the Antarc­tic Penin­su­la and Patag­o­nia .

Antarc­ti­ca: No Warm­ing Since 1979image_thumb61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sea Sur­face Tem­per­a­tures (SST) cool­ing in South­ern Ocean:14southernssta_thumb

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NOAA Data Show South­ern Oceans Get­ting Colder…Contributing To Rapid South Polar Sea Ice Expan­sion

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AP claim: ‘Over at NASA, ice sci­en­tist Eric Rig­not said the melt­ing “is going way faster than any­one had thought. It’s kind of a red flag.”

Cli­mate Depot Response: The old ‘faster than any­one had thought’ canard. Who is ‘any­one’ and how ‘fast’ was their ‘thought’ about melt­ing? All sounds very unsci­en­tif­ic and more like polit­i­cal cam­paign­ing than sci­en­tists dis­pas­sion­ate­ly look­ing at evi­dence.

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AP claim: Rig­not, of NASA:  “We have to stop it; or we have to slow it down as best as we can.”

Cli­mate Depot Response: ‘We have to stop’ ice from melt­ing? How? Through EPA reg­u­la­tions? UN Treaties? What about mul­ti­ple peer-reviewed research coun­ter­ing claims that the West Antarc­tic melt is due to human activ­i­ty?  See: New Study finds West Antarc­tic Ice Sheet out­let glac­i­er being melt­ed by mag­ma – not co2 glob­al warm­ing after all – Pub­lished in the Pro­ceed­ings of the Nation­al Acad­e­my of Sci­ences

New paper finds West Antarc­tic glac­i­er like­ly melt­ing from geot­her­mal heat below from vol­ca­noes – Pub­lished in Earth and Plan­e­tary Sci­ence Let­ters

Study: ‘Earth­quakes sug­gest mag­ma still churns beneath a pre­vi­ous­ly unknown sub­glacial vol­cano in West Antarctica’s Exec­u­tive Com­mit­tee Range’

West Antarc­tic Ice Sheet Melt­ing From Geot­her­mal Heat, Not Glob­al Warm­ing

Stud­ies indi­cate col­lapse of West Antarc­tic ice sheet is typ­i­cal of inter­glacials: ‘Thus, the com­plete col­lapse and dis­ap­pear­ance of the entire West Antarc­tic ice sheet is typ­i­cal of inter­glacials, there is no evi­dence that man has any­thing to do with the cause, nor that man can stop this phe­nom­e­non by for­sak­ing use of fos­sil fuels.’

What about the rest of Antarc­ti­ca? New Study Finds ‘Sur­pris­ing­ly Thick Antarc­tic Sea Ice’ – Pub­lished in jour­nal Nature Geo­science

The AP left out con­trary peer-reviewed stud­ies, data and trends that counter the arti­cles claims and seri­ous doubts by even warmist researchers about attribut­ing any poten­tial melt­ing in West Antarc­ti­ca to human caus­es. See: AGW link ‘is pret­ty ten­u­ous’: Researcher ‘has a prob­lem’ with attribut­ing West Antarc­tic Ice Sheet ‘col­lapse’ to human activ­i­ty – “I have a prob­lem with the wide­spread impli­ca­tion (in the pop­u­lar press) that the West Antarc­tic col­lapse can be attrib­uted to anthro­pogenic cli­mate change,” said Mike Wolovik, a grad­u­ate researcher at Lam­ont-Doher­ty who stud­ies ice sheet dynam­ics. “The marine ice sheet insta­bil­i­ty is an inher­ent part of ice sheet dynam­ics that doesn’t require any human forc­ing to oper­ate. When the papers say that col­lapse is under­way, and like­ly to last for sev­er­al hun­dred years, that’s a rea­son­able and plau­si­ble con­clu­sion.”

Geo­chemist: Chill­ing the melt­ing Antarc­tic hys­te­ria – ‘Thaw­ing of glac­i­ers is his­tor­i­cal­ly fol­lowed by refreez­ing’ – ‘Ero­sion of Antarctica’s glac­i­ers has pro­ceed­ed unabat­ed since the end of the last ice age and con­tin­ued slow­ly through the past cen­tu­ry to the present day. Pas­sage of time, even mil­len­nia, would be required before enough ice melt­ed to raise sea lev­els by the 12 to 13 feet men­tioned in recent news accounts, assum­ing the rate of about 7 inch­es per cen­tu­ry remains constant…Statements sug­gest­ing man-made car­bon diox­ide some­how trig­gers high-veloc­i­ty cir­cum­po­lar winds over the South­ern Ocean is spec­u­la­tive for a region already noto­ri­ous for high winds and treach­er­ous seas. But, he said, the link between CO2 lev­els and the loss of ice in West Antarc­ti­ca “is pret­ty ten­u­ous.” The upwelling of warmer waters that melt the ice has been tied to stronger west­er­ly winds around Antarc­ti­ca, which have been linked to a stronger air pres­sure dif­fer­ence between the polar lat­i­tudes and the mid-lat­i­tudes, which have in turn been linked to glob­al warm­ing.

AGW: more Wind & Rub­bish: ‘By far the biggest piece of rub­bish from the alarmist camp has been the release of a new paper about Antarc­tic winds’ – ‘This paper is co-authored by Matthew Eng­land. Eng­land has writ­ten oth­er papers on wind. His past papers describe how winds have dri­ven the miss­ing heat to the ocean bot­tom which explains the tem­per­a­ture hia­tus. The absur­di­ty of that propo­si­tion is cri­tiqued here.’

Relat­ed Links:

Watch Now: Mora­no on Fox News rebuts study claim­ing ‘Unstop­pable’ Antarc­ti­ca melt­ing & Sea Lev­el Rise: ‘When cur­rent real­i­ty fails to alarm, they make a bunch of scary pre­dic­tions’

We con­trol sea lev­el rise? Watch Now: Local DC News Schlock Report on Antarc­ti­ca & Sea Lev­el Rise: ‘It’s our choice how fast the seas rise’WUSA Ch. 9 DC: ‘It’s our choice how fast the seas rise and that gives us time to pre­pare and pro­tect our com­mu­ni­ties in a smart way.’ – Bren­da Ekwurzel – Union of Con­cerned Sci­en­tists – Junk Sci­ence Analy­sis: ‘We have a Pres­i­dent who said he could stop the seas from ris­ing and now a Con­cerned Sci­en­tist who says it’s our choice. ‘

Atmos­pher­ic Physi­cist Dr. Fred Singer on Antarc­ti­ca melt claims: Old news, new pan­ic

Real Sci­ence: ‘Trac­ing The Antarc­tic Scam’

Flash­back 1929: ‘Prim­i­tive Peo­ples’ Have Always Had Flood Myths: ‘The Antarc­ti­ca is melt­ing and is going to drown us all sto­ry has been a use­ful tool for gen­er­at­ing research mon­ey – for as long as sci­en­tists have known about Antarc­ti­ca.’

NYT in 2014: ‘Some­time between 200 and 900 years from now the rate of ice loss from this glac­i­er could reach a vol­ume suf­fi­cient to raise sea lev­els about 4 inch­es (100 mil­lime­ters) a cen­tu­ry. At that point, accord­ing to the paper, ice loss could pick up steam, with big loss­es over a peri­od of decades.* But in a phone con­ver­sa­tion, Jough­in said the mod­el­ing was not reli­able enough to say how much, how soon. “Col­lapse is a good sci­en­tif­ic word,” he told me, “but maybe it’s kind of a bad word” in the con­text of news. There’s more on this work in a well-writ­ten news release from Joughin’s uni­ver­si­ty. We are talk­ing about a retreat that is unstop­pable because we think we have enough evi­dence to say that these glac­i­ers will keep retreat­ing for decades and even cen­turies to come…. We’re talk­ing about a slow degra­da­tion of ice in this part of Antarc­ti­ca. Dis­turbing­ly, you can back­track to 2009 and see a sim­i­lar burst of “col­lapse” news around the release of two Nature papers, even though the sci­ence then also spoke of sea-lev­el changes over mil­len­ni­ums. Click back to “Study: West Antarc­tic Melt a Slow Affair” for a bit of déjà vu.

Flash­back 2009: Study finds West Antarc­tic Ice Sheet May Not Be Los­ing Ice As Fast As Once Thought

New study: Antarc­tic ice shelves show­ing no sign of glob­al warm­ing – June 2009

Sci­en­tists: ‘Why the Green­land and Antarc­tic Ice Sheets are Not Col­laps­ing’

Shock: Real Cli­mate tout­ed Steig et al ‘Antarc­ti­ca is warm­ing’ study ‘fal­si­fied’ — ‘the paper’s premise has been fal­si­fied’ 

Study finds: West Antarc­tic Ice Sheet May Not Be Los­ing Ice As Fast As Once Thought – Octo­ber 19, 2009 – Uni­ver­si­ty of Texas at Austin Press Release

Flash­back: Gore’s ‘melt­ing’ Antarc­tic claims refut­ed by real­i­ty — Cli­mate Depot coun­ters Gore’s claims