Report: No Global Warming For 215 Months

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The num­bers are in and the ver­dict is that there has been no glob­al warm­ing for 17 years and 11 months, accord­ing to satel­lite data.

Satel­lite data pre­pared by Lord Christo­pher Mon­ck­ton shows there has been no warm­ing trend from Octo­ber of 1996 to August of 2014 — 215 months. To put this in per­spec­tive, kids grad­u­at­ing from high school this year have not lived through any glob­al warm­ing in their life­times.

Lord Monckton

Lord Mon­ck­ton

Accord­ing to Mon­ck­ton — the third Vis­count Mon­ck­ton of Brench­ley and a for­mer pol­i­cy advis­er to U.K. Prime Min­is­ter Mar­garet Thatch­er — the rate of warm­ing has been half of what cli­mate sci­en­tists ini­tial­ly pre­dict­ed in the ear­ly 1990s.

The Unit­ed Nations Inter­gov­ern­men­tal Pan­el on Cli­mate Change (IPCC) first pre­dict­ed in 1990 that glob­al tem­per­a­tures would rise at a rate of 2.8 degrees Cel­sius per cen­tu­ry. But the tem­per­a­ture rise since the IPCC’s pre­dic­tion has only been at a rate of 1.4 degrees Cel­sius per cen­tu­ry.

The so-called “pause” in glob­al warm­ing has baf­fled cli­mate sci­en­tists, as many cli­mate mod­els did not pre­dict a pro­longed peri­od of lit­tle to no warm­ing. While some cli­mate sci­en­tists deny the “pause” in glob­al warm­ing even exists, oth­ers have looked to places ocean and wind pat­terns for answers as to why there has been no warm­ing for near­ly two decades.

There are now lit­er­al­ly dozens of poten­tial expla­na­tions for the glob­al warm­ing “pause,” rang­ing from increas­ing vol­canic activ­i­ty to Chi­nese coal-fired pow­er plant emis­sions.

The Great Pause is a grow­ing embar­rass­ment to those who had told us with ‘sub­stan­tial con­fi­dence’ that the sci­ence was set­tled and the debate over,” Mon­ck­ton wrote in his cli­mate analy­sis. “Nature had oth­er ideas.”

Though more than two dozen more or less implau­si­ble excus­es for the Pause are appear­ing in ner­vous reviewed jour­nals, the pos­si­bil­i­ty that the Pause is occur­ring because the com­put­er mod­els are sim­ply wrong about the sen­si­tiv­i­ty of tem­per­a­ture to man­made green­house gas­es can no longer be dis­missed,” Mon­ck­ton added.

Recent arti­cles have claimed that excess heat has been stored in the Earth’s oceans instead of going up into the atmos­phere. A new study in the jour­nal Sci­ence claims that glob­al warm­ing “slow­down is main­ly caused by heat trans­port­ed to deep­er lay­ers in the Atlantic and the South­ern oceans, ini­ti­at­ed by a recur­rent salin­i­ty anom­aly in the sub­po­lar North Atlantic.”

Pacif­ic and Atlantic oscil­la­tion cycles sup­pos­ed­ly force warm water deep­er and bring up cool­er waters to the sur­face — the reverse of what ocean pat­terns were doing in the 1990s when glob­al tem­per­a­tures were ris­ing.

But mete­o­rol­o­gists have been pre­dict­ing a weak el Niño this fall and win­ter, which would warm ocean waters and poten­tial­ly put an end to the “pause” in glob­al warm­ing.

The Great Pause may well come to an end by this win­ter,” said Mon­ck­ton. “An el Niño event is under­way and would nor­mal­ly peak dur­ing the north­ern-hemi­sphere win­ter. There is too lit­tle infor­ma­tion to say how much tem­po­rary warm­ing it will cause, but a new wave of warm water has emerged in recent days, so one should not yet write off this el Niño as a non-event.”

El Niños occur every few years and can cause glob­al tem­per­a­tures to tem­porar­i­ly spike. Such events caused tem­per­a­ture spikes in 1998, 2007 and 2010, accord­ing to Monckton’s data. But these tem­per­a­ture spikes are often suc­ceed­ed by huge drops in tem­per­a­tures due to la Niña events.